I think it'll lose.
Now take what I say with a grain of salt because I don't live in EPISD. But I know a thing or two about passing a bond considering I recently helped a bond pass in YISD after the previous attempt had failed.
Part of the reason the previous effort failed was because of the sticker price. Another, and more important reason, was the fact that it wasn't messaged properly and there was no real field effort to speak of.
Once we targeted the right voters with the right message and implemented a field op, the budget passed with flying colors. And it really helped that we weren't asking for the same amount the voters had just said no to the previous election cycle.
But EPISD has bigger issues and I'll go ahead and say what no one else has probably said to the Super and members of the Board of Trustees...you guys have trust issues with the community!
How are you gonna ask the community to pass a budget that large (it would be the largest in the history of El Paso County by a significant amount) if you still have active cases involved with the cheating scandal? You guys haven't built enough trust with the community to go back to them with a price tag that large.
And then there's the thing about hiring an out-of-town firm to do the campaign work to pass it. My buddy David K wrote a piece about this issue and if you haven't read it, click here to read it.
His friend Morris Pittle did a logo for another project and Morris thinks he was ripped off because the logos both use rays and say something about rising.
Well if that is the case, then Morris Pittle ripped off the state flag of Arizona because it also uses rays.
Shit, if you really want to take this to its illogical conclusion you could say that they both owe the Cohen brothers because they made a movie called Raising Arizona.
Either way, the idea that Pittle stole from the Cohen brothers or that Pittle was ripped off are both absurd.
Like the idea of asking voters to approve that damn much money.
Whether or not its true, the impression a lot of people have with EPISD, aside from not being able to be trust, is that they are top-heavy at the administrative level. Any bond that has more money for admin in the form of facilities is going to anger voters.
But lets deal with realities...most people will not vote in that election. So EPISD and their consultants, if they are smart, will target older voters who can have their taxes frozen if they have a homestead exemption, and tell them that they can have their cake and eat it too. They can vote for the bond and NOT pay higher taxes.
Then you get all the parents in the district to vote for it.
Don't bother with 18 year olds. They aren't going to come out in big numbers to vote for the bond. They don't vote for anything in big numbers because they don't vote.
Only dumbasses like Ali Razavi actually buy the bullshit that 18 year old students are targeted to vote in bond elections.
You want to get them to vote? Make every polling place a Pokemon gym or a place where there are rare Pokemon and make voting the requirement to get the ultra rare I-Don't-Give-Fuck-a-saurus.
Otherwise, its really hard to see how a historically high bond gets passed without a field program.